The Childcare Licensed Supply Index
Every licensed childcare center in six major U.S. metros, counted directly from state licensing registers. How many seats exist, how big the buildings are, and how many children compete for each seat.
Six markets, ranked by how tight supply is.
Ranked by children under 5 per licensed seat. A higher number means fewer seats per child — tighter supply, and all else equal, more durable enrollment for the operator.
| Metro | Licensed centers | Licensed seats | Median capacity | Children <5 per seat | Serve infants |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San AntonioTX | 708 | 83,302 | 100 | 1.98 | 76% |
| DenverCO | 1,076 | 89,323 | 65 | 1.84 | 35% |
| Dallas–Fort WorthTX | 2,378 | 322,797 | 119 | 1.56 | 65% |
| HoustonTX | 2,312 | 313,162 | 112 | 1.56 | 72% |
| AtlantaGA | 1,785 | 241,349 | 122 | 1.51 | 77% |
| AustinTX | 952 | 114,101 | 102 | 1.21 | 57% |
Tight supply is not the same as a good market.
San Antonio has the tightest supply of the six: 1.98 children under 5 per licensed seat, against 1.21 in Austin. Two Texas cities eighty miles apart, and a San Antonio operator faces half the competition per child that an Austin operator does. That is the difference between competing for enrollment and managing a waitlist.
But tight supply does not by itself make up for rates or income. Austin has the loosest supply of the six and also some of the highest tuition rates in Texas — household income sustains pricing that San Antonio cannot match. The ratio tells you about enrollment durability, not pricing power. A buyer needs both.
Median building size is the other structural variable, and it is the one that matters most for real estate investment. Denver's median licensed capacity is just 65 seats against Atlanta's 122. Fewer Denver buildings reach the 5,000 square feet that net-lease buyers look for, which means a narrower buyer pool when it comes time to sell.
For context: the Center for American Progress defines a "child care desert" as an area with more than three young children per licensed slot. All six markets here sit well below that threshold. That comparison has limits — CAP measures local family access within a 20-minute drive and includes home-based care, Head Start and state pre-K, while we count licensed centers only, metro-wide. The two numbers answer different questions: theirs is about access, ours is about market structure.
How full centers actually run.
Licensed seats tell you how much capacity exists. Occupancy tells you how much of it gets used. Two publicly traded childcare operators publish that figure every quarter, and it is the most honest benchmark available.
Three things an owner or landlord should take from this. First, the largest childcare operator in the country runs its mature centers at roughly two-thirds occupancy, and that figure is down 310 basis points year over year. If a seller tells you 85% occupancy is the industry norm, it is not.
Second, rent runs about 10.5% of KinderCare's revenue. That is the practical benchmark when underwriting a childcare lease: if a tenant's rent comfortably exceeds 11% or 12% of center revenue, it is carrying a heavier load than the country's largest operator. That is a coverage test you can run on any lease before you buy it.
Third, more than a third of KinderCare's revenue comes from families whose tuition is subsidized by government. For a landlord, that is policy exposure, not just tenant credit risk. It is worth knowing what share of your tenant's revenue depends on state or federal subsidy programs before you underwrite a ten-year lease.
"Enrolled" and "occupancy" are not the same number.
The centers we survey report a median utilization of 77.2% — enrollment divided by licensed capacity. KinderCare reports same-center occupancy of 67.8%. The gap does not mean the centers we track outperform. It means the two figures are calculated differently.
KinderCare divides full-time-equivalent enrollment by capacity. When a school tells us how many children are enrolled, it typically counts each child once, part-timers included. A center with 100 seats and 85 enrolled children, 20 of whom attend three days a week, reports 85% enrollment and roughly 77% full-time-equivalent occupancy.
This matters when buying. A seller quoting "92% enrolled" can be correct and still be running well below that on a full-time-equivalent basis — and earnings follow attendance days, not names on a roster. Ask for full-time-equivalent enrollment, or ask for the full-time versus part-time split. The difference between 92% and 77% at a 150-seat center is roughly 22 seats of revenue.
U.S. childcare licensed supply — key figures
Across six major U.S. metro areas there are 9,211 licensed childcare centers holding 1,164,034 licensed seats, serving 1,821,819 children under 5 — roughly 1.57 children per licensed seat.
San Antonio is the tightest-supplied of the six markets at 1.98 children under 5 per licensed seat. Austin is the loosest at 1.21. Dallas–Fort Worth and Houston sit at 1.56, Atlanta at 1.51, and Denver at 1.84.
Median licensed capacity per center ranges from 65 seats in Denver to 122 in Atlanta. Texas averages between 100 and 119 seats depending on the market. Building size determines how many properties qualify as 5,000+ square foot net-lease investments.
Publicly traded childcare operators run their mature centers at roughly two-thirds of capacity. KinderCare reported same-center occupancy of 67.8% for fiscal 2025 and 66.0% for the quarter ended April 4, 2026. Licensed capacity averages 134 children per KinderCare center and 132 per U.S. Bright Horizons center.
Rent runs approximately 10.5% of KinderCare's revenue, based on fiscal 2026 lease obligations of $285.8 million against fiscal 2025 revenue of $2,733.3 million. The weighted average remaining term on its operating leases is 9 years. A childcare tenant whose rent comfortably exceeds 11% to 12% of center revenue is carrying a heavier load than the country's largest operator.
Sources: Texas (HHSC CCL), Georgia (DECAL) and Colorado (CDEC) state licensing public records, pulled August 2, 2026. Demographics: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2023. Operator benchmarks: KinderCare Learning Companies public SEC filings and Bright Horizons Family Solutions May 2026 investor presentation. These figures may be cited or republished with attribution to Little Scholars Real Estate (CC BY 4.0).
Wondering how your center compares?
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