Tuition has climbed far faster than inflation since the pandemic. For owners and investors, the question is whether those gains are durable — and what they mean for value.
A historic run-up
The numbers are striking. Child Care Aware data shows childcare prices have risen about 35.5% since 2019 — outpacing overall inflation by roughly 7 percentage points — with the sharpest single-year jump (about 13.3%) coming between 2023 and 2024. By 2026 the U.S. average had reached roughly $1,230 a month, and for one child in many metros the annual cost rivals $15,000.
That pricing power reflects the supply-demand imbalance: too few slots, too many families competing for them. The end of pandemic stabilization grants poured fuel on the fire — providers faced an estimated $1,500-per-month revenue gap when the funding lapsed, much of it passed straight through to families.
Can it hold?
Affordability is a real ceiling — childcare already rivals housing as a household's largest expense in many markets. But with supply constrained and demand durable, meaningful tuition rollbacks are unlikely in undersupplied areas.
Employer-sponsored care and public pre-K funding also cushion affordability, supporting revenue at the center level.
The valuation angle
Higher, sustainable tuition lifts center revenue and the rent a property can support — directly supporting real estate value. The key word is sustainable: buyers discount tuition that looks stretched relative to the local market.
We help owners show that their pricing is durable, not peaked, which protects value at sale.
Find out what your school is worth.
A confidential, no-pressure valuation from a broker who has owned, operated, and sold childcare centers for 30+ years.
