More than half of Americans live in a childcare desert. That shortage is a hardship for families — and a structural source of value for well-located centers.
What a childcare desert is
A childcare desert is an area with little or no licensed capacity relative to the number of young children. Depending on the definition, well over 30% of U.S. families — and by some measures more than half — live in one.
These gaps persist because new supply is hard to add: zoning, licensing, construction costs, and staffing all slow development, even where demand is obvious. The 2023–2024 expiration of $24 billion in ARPA stabilization grants made it worse — the Century Foundation projected more than 70,000 programs could close, putting roughly 3.2 million children's spots at risk.
Why scarcity supports value
When capacity is scarce and hard to replace, an existing, licensed, well-located center becomes a premium asset. Families compete for slots, enrollment stays full, and the rent the center can support is durable.
This is a core reason childcare real estate held its pricing through the rising-rate environment of 2023–2025 even as transaction volume cooled.
Using the data when you sell
If your center sits in an underserved market, that's a selling point worth documenting — local child population, competitor count, and your waitlist all support a stronger valuation.
We help owners quantify and present the scarcity around their site so buyers underwrite it as the durable advantage it is.
Find out what your school is worth.
A confidential, no-pressure valuation from a broker who has owned, operated, and sold childcare centers for 30+ years.
