Why Enrollment Data Is the Hidden Driver of Child Care Real Estate Value

When investors look at NNN child care centers, the focus is often on cap rates, rent, and lease term. But beneath these metrics lies a critical factor that can determine the long-term value and security of the asset: enrollment data.

📈 Enrollment = Rent Sustainability

The core of any child care center’s rent payments is tuition revenue. A center operating at 60% capacity is not as stable as one at 90%, no matter how strong the lease guaranty appears on paper. Here’s why enrollment matters:

• High enrollment = strong cash flow = stable rent payments

• Consistent waitlists = pricing power on tuition (and rent renewals)

• Low enrollment = red flag for potential closures or renegotiations

  
  

🏡 Enrollment Trends by Market

In our experience across nearly 20 states and over 100 child care property transactions, we’ve seen enrollment patterns that correlate directly with real estate value:

✅ Urban & inner suburban sites with high dual-income households often maintain high enrollment even in soft markets.

✅ Rural or tertiary markets may see greater volatility in enrollment, leading to increased lease risk for landlords.

💡 What This Means for NNN Landlords

• When evaluating or listing a child care property, ask for enrollment data alongside rent rolls and tuition rates.

• Properties with consistently high enrollment command tighter cap rates and stronger buyer demand.

• Low-enrollment properties can still be valuable—but expect more negotiation on price or lease terms.

  
  

🚀 How Little Scholars Can Help

At Little Scholars Real Estate, we don’t just look at rent and cap rates. We provide enrollment data, tuition trends, and capacity insights—giving landlords and buyers the full picture of value and risk.

If you’d like us to review your property’s enrollment data and market positioning, reach out—this is part of our no-cost service to NNN landlords.